Related Web Works

Gaining Speed Will Sway Users Toward the Internet

By William Casey Washington Post Staff Writer Monday, July 22 1996; Page F19 The Washington Post

CD-ROMs have become so popular that virtually all new desktop computers are shipped with the ability to use them. But by the turn of the century, CD-ROMs could themselves become unused relics, just like those old 5 1/4-inch floppies.

And why?

The big ol' Internet, as you might expect.

The only thing standing between today's CD-ROMs and obsolescence is that the bandwidth (speed) for most users is still pretty narrow (slow). When high-speed data transfers become commonplace in homes and offices, CD-ROMs are unlikely to continue as an attractive alternative.

I've been a longtime proponent of CD-ROM technology. At home, a CD reader has been attached to my Macs since 1990 -- I have great affection for "Street Atlas," "Cinemania" and my other CDs. If I had been asked (I wasn't!), manufacturers would have made CD capability standard on all personal computing platforms five years ago.

But time marches on. Think of what's attractive about using CD-ROMs and you also get an inkling as to why they're probably not going to be with us forever:

CD-ROMs hold lots and lots of data.

Their generous storage capacity of 600 million bytes has been a main attraction from the beginning. Nonetheless, even this much capacity is insufficient for a growing number of applications. Photo collections, graphics, sound and video all chew up dozens of megabytes at a time.

Look at and listen to multimedia CD-ROMs and it becomes all too evident that there's not enough capacity to include an entire album's worth of music and video clips and interviews and other data. Instead, compromises are made and consumers end with a series of half-loaves: a little music, a few video clips and so on.

New high-density CD-ROM formats promise to increase capacities by between five and 15 times. But even they may not remedy the underlying problem: Real world volumes of recordable data are increasing exponentially.

The Internet, given its extendable structure, is not hobbled by such storage limitations. With a capacity for data transfer that's T1 speed or greater, direct access appears to be a better choice than CD- or SD-ROM. (A telephone T1 line transfers data at more than 1 million bits per second, but right now it's not an option for home users.)

CD-ROMs are great vehicles for software updates.

Even if you don't own a single reference or multimedia CD-ROM title, loading your Lotus Smart Suite or Apple's latest system software from a single CD is much simpler than using the alternative, floppy disks. We all know there are no good disks: just lost disks, disks with errors and bad disks.

But we're already installing more and more software onto computers by downloading it directly from the Internet. The process is dependable and convenient and there's no postage or handling charges. Right now it's not the quickest thing in the world to watch. But when it is, why distribute software in any other form?

CD-ROMs are terrific for referencing timely data. A CD-ROM encyclopedia or atlas is handy and compares favorably with traditional versions of the same publications. You can search, use hypertext, hear some pre-cooked sound bytes and buy another copy for $20 when it gets out of date. Not so that 32-volume Britannica that's been collecting dust in my sun room for more than a decade.

But whether it's an encyclopedia, a catalogue of phone numbers or a map, information contained on a CD-ROM is still obsolete the day it's pressed. As soon as data are frozen onto a disk or tape, they start losing value.

The Internet solution is already superior, with up-to-date information readily available. Since the vast majority of us don't spend large chunks of time looking up state populations, Zip codes or historical factoids, what we have now is more than satisfactory, even at slow speeds.

CD-ROMs are flexible and portable and you don't need a phone connection to make them work.

This is one big advantage that CD-ROMs will continue to enjoy, but it's unlikely to make a difference in the long term.

The Internet's throughput problems -- whether you consider our painfully inadequate connections to the network or the network's own increasingly congested state -- are well established. As long as things remain as they are, CD-ROM technology is safe and will doubtless continue its expansion.

But whatever year it is that those cable modems -- or T1 lines or other high-speed connections -- become generally available, watch out.

William Casey is The Post's director of computer-assisted reporting. His e-mail address is caseyw@washpost.com.

© Copyright 1996 The Washington Post Company

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